Abstract: The unpredictable mutations in the proteins from influenza A virus lead to the great
difficulty in prevention of possible outbreak of bird flu and pandemic/epidemic of influenza. This
unpredictability is due to the fact that we know little about the causes that lead to the mutations. In
three of our recent studies on the hemagglutinins from influenza A virus, we unintentionally noticed
the periodicity of mutations in hemagglutinins similar to the periodicity of sunspot. We calculated the
amino-acid pair predictability and amino-acid distribution rank, which are developed by us over last
several years and can numerically present the evolution of proteins in question, of 1217 full-length
hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses. We then used the fast Fourier transform to determine the
periodicity of mutations in the hemagglutinins. We compare the periodicities of mutations in influenza
A virus hemagglutinins with those of solar and galactic cosmic rays and find a main periodicity of the
mutations identical to that of sunspot and neutron rate (11 years/circle). Then we plot the sunspot
number with respect to the historical pandemics/epidemics/non-pandemic new strains over last three
centuries and compare the recorded sunspots with the historical pandemics before 1700. Both show a
good agreement between sunspot activity and influenza related events. As the histories of Sun and
galaxy are incomparably much longer than the history of influenza virus, the only logical deduction is
that the hemagglutinin periodicities, which are identical to the periodicities of solar and galactic
cosmic rays, are attribute to the solar and galactic activity. As the hemagglutinin is a sample of
influenza A virus, we can logically deduce the role of migratory wild birds on the outbreak of bird flu
and influenza, that is, cosmic rays are heading towards the polar regions, where more mutations occur
in influenza A virus either within the wild birds or in their living environments and as the winter
approaches, these waterfowl fly forwards warm south bringing back the new mutated influenza A virus
leading to outbreak of bird flu or influenza.

Searching of main cause leading to severe influenza A virus mutations and consequently to influenza pandemics epidemics.pdf