Kieran TJ, Maines TR, Belser JA. Limited ´heft´ of weight-based outcomes in predicting influenza A virus disease severity in ferrets. PLoS Comput Biol. 2026 May 8;22(5):e1014210
Studies evaluating viral pathogenicity in small mammalian models often quantify disease severity using the magnitudes of temperature rise and weight loss post-challenge. However, no rigorous assessment on the transformation of serially collected data into features suitable for predictive models has been conducted. Using data aggregated from ferrets inoculated with a diverse panel of influenza A viruses (IAV) spanning a broad range of clinical outcomes, we assessed statistical correlations and predictive performance of temperature and weight loss, summarized by conventional and novel approaches. Conventional summary metrics (peak values or area under the curve) were weak and inconsistent correlates of overall disease severity and viral titers. Novel dynamic weight metrics capturing onset, duration, slope, and volatility over 14 days showed lower coefficients of variation than conventional summary approaches. However, inclusion of novel metrics did not meaningfully improve the predictive performance of machine learning models for disease severity outcomes in IAV-inoculated ferrets. Mixed-effects models indicated that weight loss post-IAV infection is driven by time and viral burden, with temperature contributing little additional information. Collectively, these findings support that derived metrics are at least comparable, if not enhanced, to conventional summaries for data science analyses of serially generated clinical data from in vivo pathogen studies. However, because pathogen disease severity in mammals is multifactorial, models that rely solely on weight and temperature metrics without additional quantitative measures of clinical perturbation within-host are unlikely to achieve strong predictive performance.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Determinants of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Uptake Among People Aged 50 Years or Above During and After the Pandemic: A Systematic Review 9 hours ago
- [preprint]A GIS-based framework for standardized environmental characterization in One-Health surveillance: a case study of HPAI monitoring in wetlands 9 hours ago
- First detection and transatlantic introduction of Influenza A(H3N2) subclade K (J.2.4.1) into Ecuador: insights from genomic sentinel surveillance 10 hours ago
- Assessment of influenza virus and coronavirus tropism, replication competence and disease severity in ex vivo and in vitro cultures of the human respiratory tract 1 days ago
- Characterization of bovine-derived H5N1 viruses expressing fluorescent and luminescent reporter proteins 1 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


