Wongnak P, Seers T, Jittamala P, Imwong M, Schilli. Characterizing viral clearance kinetics in acute influenza. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2026 Apr 30;38
Pharmacometric assessment of antiviral efficacy in acute influenza informs treatment decisions and pandemic preparedness. We characterized natural viral clearance in acute influenza to guide phase II trial design using simulations based upon observed data. Standardized duplicate oropharyngeal swabs were collected daily over 14 days from 80 untreated low-risk Thai adults, with viral densities measured using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. We evaluated three models to describe viral clearance: exponential, bi-exponential and growth-and-decay. The growth-and-decay model provided the best fit, but the exponential decay model was the most parsimonious. The median viral clearance half-life was 10.3 h (interquartile range (IQR): 6.8-15.4h), varying by influenza type: 9.6 h (IQR: 6.2-13.0 h) for influenza A and 14.0 h (IQR: 10.3-19.3 h) for influenza B. Simulated trials using parameters from the exponential decay model showed that 148 patients per arm provide over 90% power to detect treatments accelerating viral clearance by 40%. Variation in clearance rates strongly impacted the power; doubling this variation would require 232 patients per arm for an antiviral with a 60% effect size. A sampling strategy with four swabs per day reduces the required sample size to 81 per arm while maintaining over 80% power. We recommend this approach to assess and compare current anti-influenza drugs.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- [preprint]The mammalian-adaptive PB2-E627K substitution preserves viral fitness of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV in birds 4 hours ago
- Mallard super-shedders of avian influenza exhibit distinct cloacal microbial abundance profiles 8 hours ago
- A digitally immune-optimized influenza vaccine broadly neutralizes swine and human H1N1 influenza viruses and protects from heterologous challenge 8 hours ago
- Associations between vaccine misinformation and influenza vaccine uptake: a population-based interrupted time-series study in China 8 hours ago
- Infection and transmission dynamics of bovine and human influenza A H5N1 viruses in mouse and hamster models 9 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


