Huddleston J, Bedford T. Timely vaccine strain selection and genomic surveillance improve evolutionary forecast accuracy of seasonal influenza A/H3N2. Elife. 2025 Dec 4;14:RP104282
Evolutionary forecasting models inform seasonal influenza vaccine design by predicting which current genetic variants will dominate in the influenza season 12 months later. Forecasting models depend on hemagglutinin sequences from global public health networks to identify current genetic variants (clades) and estimate clade fitnesses. The lag between collection of a clinical sample and public availability of its sequence averages ~3 months, complicating the 12-month forecasting problem by reducing our understanding of current clade frequencies. Despite continued methodological improvements to forecasting models, these constraints of a 12-month forecast horizon and 3-month submission lags impose an upper bound on any model´s accuracy. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic revealed that modern vaccine technology reduces forecast horizons to 6 months and expanded sequencing support reduces submission lags to 1 month on average. We quantified the potential effects of these public health policy changes on forecast accuracy for A/H3N2 populations. Reducing forecast horizons to 6 months reduced average absolute forecasting errors to 25% of the 12-month average, while reducing submission lags decreased uncertainty in current clade frequencies by 50%. These results show the potential to improve the accuracy of existing forecasting models through realistic changes to public health policy.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Modeling Airborne Influenza in Three Dimensions 2 days ago
- Increased contact transmission of contemporary Human H5N1 compared to Bovine and Mountain Lion H5N1 in a hamster model 2 days ago
- Immunity to hemagglutinin and neuraminidase results in additive reductions in airborne transmission of influenza H1N1 virus in ferrets 2 days ago
- A modelling exploration of potential spatiotemporal risk of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus introduction to Danish dairy herds through the contaminated environment 2 days ago
- Emergence of a novel H4N6 avian influenza virus with mammalian adaptation isolated from migratory birds in Zhejiang Province, China, 2024 2 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


