Xinyue Zhang, Xinyi Sang, Beibei Liu, Quanyu Wang,. Methods and Applications: Developing Machine Learning Prediction Model for Daily Influenza Reported Cases Using Multichannel Surveillance Data - A City, Hubei Province, China, 2023~2025. China CDC Weekly, 2025, 7(44): 1396-1402
Introduction
Public health surveillance is crucial for decision-making. Given the significant threat of influenza to public health, developing predictive models using multichannel surveillance systems is imperative.
Methods
Data were collected from multichannel surveillance systems, including hospitals, search engines, and climatological and air pollutant surveillance systems, in a southern Chinese city from January 2023 to January 2025. Spearman’s correlation analysis assessed the relationships between variables and reported influenza cases. Several machine learning models were used to predict trends in reported cases.
Results
Correlation analysis showed that all four surveillance systems were related to influenza, with 27 variables correlated with daily reported cases. The Long Short-Term Memory model, established based on variables with the highest lagged correlations (5-day to 7-day lag) through combined surveillance systems, outperformed other models for 5-day forecasts (R2=0.92; mean absolute error=156.92; mean absolute percentage error=79.95%; root Mean Squared Error=292.33).
Conclusions
Data from various surveillance systems effectively track influenza epidemics. The model shows potential for infectious disease surveillance and epidemic preparedness.
Public health surveillance is crucial for decision-making. Given the significant threat of influenza to public health, developing predictive models using multichannel surveillance systems is imperative.
Methods
Data were collected from multichannel surveillance systems, including hospitals, search engines, and climatological and air pollutant surveillance systems, in a southern Chinese city from January 2023 to January 2025. Spearman’s correlation analysis assessed the relationships between variables and reported influenza cases. Several machine learning models were used to predict trends in reported cases.
Results
Correlation analysis showed that all four surveillance systems were related to influenza, with 27 variables correlated with daily reported cases. The Long Short-Term Memory model, established based on variables with the highest lagged correlations (5-day to 7-day lag) through combined surveillance systems, outperformed other models for 5-day forecasts (R2=0.92; mean absolute error=156.92; mean absolute percentage error=79.95%; root Mean Squared Error=292.33).
Conclusions
Data from various surveillance systems effectively track influenza epidemics. The model shows potential for infectious disease surveillance and epidemic preparedness.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- [preprint]The mammalian-adaptive PB2-E627K substitution preserves viral fitness of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV in birds 7 hours ago
- Mallard super-shedders of avian influenza exhibit distinct cloacal microbial abundance profiles 11 hours ago
- A digitally immune-optimized influenza vaccine broadly neutralizes swine and human H1N1 influenza viruses and protects from heterologous challenge 11 hours ago
- Associations between vaccine misinformation and influenza vaccine uptake: a population-based interrupted time-series study in China 12 hours ago
- Infection and transmission dynamics of bovine and human influenza A H5N1 viruses in mouse and hamster models 12 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


