-

nihao guest [ sign in / register ]
2025-12-5 15:39:20


Jason Matthiopoulos, etc.,al. [preprint]Multispecies HPAI spillovers led to the death of one-in-three breeding gannets. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6589046/v1
submited by kickingbird at May, 19, 2025 11:45 AM from https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6589046/v1

Emerging wildlife diseases, such as the recent global outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, can devastate animal populations, yet identifying transmission pathways and true levels of mortality remains a formidable challenge. We leveraged European carcass counts from the severely impacted Northern Gannet, to which we fit a Bayesian, metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased model, hence uncovering key epidemiological parameters, transmission routes, and overall mortality across the species’ 43-colony metapopulation. Within-colony transmission patterns were consistent with fixed spatial structuring of nests. Between-colony spread was predominantly distance-dependent, in-line with intra-specific transmission, though large-scale outbreak initiation was best explained by inter-specific vectors. We estimate that these multiscale/multispecies dynamics culminated in 33% continental mortality (95% CI: 27–39%) across the Gannet metapopulation. Our approach not only disentangles inter- and intra-specific transmission processes, but offers a scalable tool for real-time assessment of disease spread in wildlife, helping to control threats to biodiversity, agriculture, and public health.

See Also:

Latest articles in those days:

[Go Top]    [Close Window]

Related Pages:
Learn about the flu news, articles, events and more
Subscribe to the weekly F.I.C newsletter!


  

Site map  |   Contact us  |  Term of use  |  FAQs |  粤ICP备10094839号-1
Copyright ©www.flu.org.cn. 2004-2025. All Rights Reserved. Powered by FIC 4.0.1
  Email:webmaster@flu.org.cn