Nguyen, V.H., Crépey, P., Williams, B.A. et al. Modeling the impact of early vaccination in an influenza pandemic in the United States. npj Vaccines 10, 62 (2025)
We modeled the impact of initiating one-dose influenza vaccination at 3 months vs 6 months after declaration of a pandemic over a 1-year timeframe in the US population. Three vaccine effectiveness (VE) and two pandemic severity levels were considered, using an epidemic curve based on typical seasonal influenza epidemics. Vaccination from 3 months with a high, moderate, or low effectiveness vaccine would prevent ~95%, 84%, or 38% deaths post-vaccination, respectively, compared with 21%, 18%, and 8%, respectively following vaccination at 6 months, irrespective of pandemic severity. While the pandemic curve would not be flattened from vaccination from 6 months, a moderate/high effectiveness vaccine could flatten the curve if administered from 3 months. Overall, speed of initiating a vaccination campaign is more important than VE in reducing the health impacts of an influenza pandemic. Preparedness strategies may be able to minimize future pandemic impacts by prioritizing rapid vaccine roll-out.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Birth cohort effects in adults associated with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine effectiveness 4 hours ago
- Genetic Characterization of Swine Influenza Viruses in Thailand in 2019-2025 Reveals Novel Reassortants 4 hours ago
- Outbreak dynamics of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus H5N1, clade 2.3.4.4b euBB, in black-headed gulls and common terns in Germany in 2023 5 hours ago
- [preprint]The canine respiratory epithelium is a permissive ecosystem for influenza interspecies transmission and emergence 5 hours ago
- [preprint]Explainable and Calibrated AI for Decoding Host-Adaptive Changes in Influenza A Virus 5 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


