Jack Ward, etc.,al. [preprint]Estimates of epidemiological parameters for H5N1 influenza in humans: a rapid review. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.12.11.24318702
Background The ongoing H5N1 panzootic in mammals has amplified zoonotic pathways to facilitate human infection. Characterising key epidemiological parameters for H5N1 is critical should this become widespread.
Aim To identify and estimate critical epidemiological parameters for H5N1 from past and current outbreaks, and to compare their characteristics with human influenza subtypes.
Methods We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library for systematic reviews reporting parameter estimates from primary data or meta-analyses. To address gaps, we searched Google Scholar for studies of any design providing relevant estimates. We estimated the basic reproduction number for the outbreak in the US and estimated the serial interval using data from previous household clusters in Indonesia. We also applied a branching process model to simulate transmission chain size and duration to assess if simulated transmission patterns align with observed dynamics.
Results From 32 studies, we identified H5N1’s epidemiological profile as having lower transmissibility (R0 < 0.2) but higher severity compared to human subtypes. Evidence suggests H5N1 has longer incubation (~4 days vs ~2 days) and serial intervals (~6 days vs ~3 days) than human subtypes, impacting transmission dynamics. Key gaps remain regarding latent and infectious periods.
Conclusions We characterised critical epidemiological parameters for H5N1 infection. The current U.S. outbreak shows lower pathogenicity but similar transmissibility compared to prior outbreaks. Longer incubation and serial intervals may enhance contact tracing feasibility. These estimates offer a baseline for monitoring changes in H5N1 epidemiology.
Aim To identify and estimate critical epidemiological parameters for H5N1 from past and current outbreaks, and to compare their characteristics with human influenza subtypes.
Methods We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library for systematic reviews reporting parameter estimates from primary data or meta-analyses. To address gaps, we searched Google Scholar for studies of any design providing relevant estimates. We estimated the basic reproduction number for the outbreak in the US and estimated the serial interval using data from previous household clusters in Indonesia. We also applied a branching process model to simulate transmission chain size and duration to assess if simulated transmission patterns align with observed dynamics.
Results From 32 studies, we identified H5N1’s epidemiological profile as having lower transmissibility (R0 < 0.2) but higher severity compared to human subtypes. Evidence suggests H5N1 has longer incubation (~4 days vs ~2 days) and serial intervals (~6 days vs ~3 days) than human subtypes, impacting transmission dynamics. Key gaps remain regarding latent and infectious periods.
Conclusions We characterised critical epidemiological parameters for H5N1 infection. The current U.S. outbreak shows lower pathogenicity but similar transmissibility compared to prior outbreaks. Longer incubation and serial intervals may enhance contact tracing feasibility. These estimates offer a baseline for monitoring changes in H5N1 epidemiology.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- [preprint]The mammalian-adaptive PB2-E627K substitution preserves viral fitness of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV in birds 12 hours ago
- Mallard super-shedders of avian influenza exhibit distinct cloacal microbial abundance profiles 16 hours ago
- A digitally immune-optimized influenza vaccine broadly neutralizes swine and human H1N1 influenza viruses and protects from heterologous challenge 16 hours ago
- Associations between vaccine misinformation and influenza vaccine uptake: a population-based interrupted time-series study in China 17 hours ago
- Infection and transmission dynamics of bovine and human influenza A H5N1 viruses in mouse and hamster models 18 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


