The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of vaccination, COVID-19 pandemic and migration of migratory birds on the avian influenza positivity rate in Shangrao City and to predict the future avian influenza positivity rate. Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to detect nucleic acids of avian influenza A viruses. 1795 samples were collected between 2016 and 2022, of which 1086 were positive. In addition, there were seven human cases of avian influenza. The results showed that the positivity rate of H9 subtype in Shangrao City was higher than usual during the COVID-19 pandemic and migratory birds. Predictions suggest that the H9 subtype positivity rate in Shangrao City will be on the rise in the future. In recent years, the H5 positivity rate has gradually increased. Migratory birds and the COVID-19 pandemic have led to an increase in H9 subtype positivity. Therefore, the prevention and control of them should be strengthened.