Sheen JK, Rasambainarivo F, Saad-Roy CM, Grenfell. Markets as drivers of selection for highly virulent poultry pathogens. Nat Commun. 2024 Jan 19;15(1):605
Theoretical models have successfully predicted the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence in industrialized farm contexts of broiler chicken populations. Whether there are ecological factors specific to more traditional rural farming that affect virulence is an open question. Within non-industrialized farming networks, live bird markets are known to be hotspots of transmission, but whether they could shift selection pressures on the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence has not been addressed. Here, we revisit predictions for the evolution of virulence for viral poultry pathogens, such as Newcastle´s disease virus, Marek´s disease virus, and influenza virus, H5N1, using a compartmental model that represents transmission in rural markets. We show that both the higher turnover rate and higher environmental persistence in markets relative to farms could select for higher optimal virulence strategies. In contrast to theoretical results modeling industrialized poultry farms, we find that cleaning could also select for decreased virulence in the live poultry market setting. Additionally, we predict that more virulent strategies selected in markets could circulate solely within poultry located in markets. Thus, we recommend the close monitoring of markets not only as hotspots of transmission, but as potential sources of more virulent strains of poultry pathogens.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Birth cohort effects in adults associated with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine effectiveness 11 hours ago
- Genetic Characterization of Swine Influenza Viruses in Thailand in 2019-2025 Reveals Novel Reassortants 11 hours ago
- Outbreak dynamics of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus H5N1, clade 2.3.4.4b euBB, in black-headed gulls and common terns in Germany in 2023 12 hours ago
- [preprint]The canine respiratory epithelium is a permissive ecosystem for influenza interspecies transmission and emergence 12 hours ago
- [preprint]Explainable and Calibrated AI for Decoding Host-Adaptive Changes in Influenza A Virus 12 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


