de Jong SPJ, Felix Garza ZC, Gibson JC, van Leeuwe. Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation. Nat Commun. 2024 Jan 18;15(1):591
During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Intranasal influenza virus-vectored vaccine offers protection against clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 infection in small animal models 8 hours ago
- Mapping of stakeholders in avian influenza surveillance in Canada 20 hours ago
- [preprint]Population Immunity to Hemagglutinin Head, Stalk and Neuraminidase of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza 2.3.4.4b A(H5N1) viruses in the United States and the Impact of Seasonal Influenza on 1 days ago
- Airborne Influenza Virus Surveillance Platform Using Paper-Based Immunosensors and a Growth-Based Virus Aerosol Concentrator 1 days ago
- [preprint]A Human H5N1 Influenza Virus Expressing Bioluminescence for Evaluating Viral Infection and Identifying Therapeutic Interventions 2 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]