Gass JD Jr, Hill NJ, Damodaran L, Naumova EN, Nutt. Ecogeographic Drivers of the Spatial Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Europe and the United States, 2016-Early 2022. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jun 1;20(11)
H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have caused outbreaks in Europe among wild and domestic birds since 2016 and were introduced to North America via wild migratory birds in December 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal extent of HPAI viruses across continents and characterized ecological and environmental predictors of virus spread between geographic regions by constructing a Bayesian phylodynamic generalized linear model (phylodynamic-GLM). The findings demonstrate localized epidemics of H5Nx throughout Europe in the first several years of the epizootic, followed by a singular branching point where H5N1 viruses were introduced to North America, likely via stopover locations throughout the North Atlantic. Once in the United States (US), H5Nx viruses spread at a greater rate between US-based regions as compared to prior spread in Europe. We established that geographic proximity is a predictor of virus spread between regions, implying that intercontinental transport across the Atlantic Ocean is relatively rare. An increase in mean ambient temperature over time was predictive of reduced H5Nx virus spread, which may reflect the effect of climate change on declines in host species abundance, decreased persistence of the virus in the environment, or changes in migratory patterns due to ecological alterations. Our data provide new knowledge about the spread and directionality of H5Nx virus dispersal in Europe and the US during an actively evolving intercontinental outbreak, including predictors of virus movement between regions, which will contribute to surveillance and mitigation strategies as the outbreak unfolds, and in future instances of uncontained avian spread of HPAI viruses.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Generation of Nasal Cell-Derived Human Alveolar Organoids and Organoid-Macrophage Assembloids for in Vitro Lung Modeling 13 hours ago
- Determinants of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Uptake Among People Aged 50 Years or Above During and After the Pandemic: A Systematic Review 1 days ago
- [preprint]A GIS-based framework for standardized environmental characterization in One-Health surveillance: a case study of HPAI monitoring in wetlands 1 days ago
- First detection and transatlantic introduction of Influenza A(H3N2) subclade K (J.2.4.1) into Ecuador: insights from genomic sentinel surveillance 1 days ago
- Assessment of influenza virus and coronavirus tropism, replication competence and disease severity in ex vivo and in vitro cultures of the human respiratory tract 2 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


