Osthus D, Moran KR. Multiscale influenza forecasting. Nat Commun. 2021 May 20;12(1):2991
Influenza forecasting in the United States (US) is complex and challenging due to spatial and temporal variability, nested geographic scales of interest, and heterogeneous surveillance participation. Here we present Dante, a multiscale influenza forecasting model that learns rather than prescribes spatial, temporal, and surveillance data structure and generates coherent forecasts across state, regional, and national scales. We retrospectively compare Dante´s short-term and seasonal forecasts for previous flu seasons to the Dynamic Bayesian Model (DBM), a leading competitor. Dante outperformed DBM for nearly all spatial units, flu seasons, geographic scales, and forecasting targets. Dante´s sharper and more accurate forecasts also suggest greater public health utility. Dante placed 1st in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention´s prospective 2018/19 FluSight challenge in both the national and regional competition and the state competition. The methodology underpinning Dante can be used in other seasonal disease forecasting contexts having nested geographic scales of interest.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- The surveillance programme for avian influenza (AI) in Norwegian wildlife 2025 9 hours ago
- The surveillance programme for avian influenza (AI) in poultry in Norway 2025 9 hours ago
- Emergence of Novel Reassortant H3N2 Avian Influenza Viruses in Southern China: Genetic Complexity and Pathogenicity in Chickens and Mice 10 hours ago
- Pathological evidence of neurotropism and oculotropism in wild black-headed gulls naturally infected with H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza 10 hours ago
- Birth cohort effects in adults associated with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine effectiveness 22 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


