Elsobky Y, El Afandi G, Abdalla E, Byomi A, Reddy. Possible ramifications of climate variability on HPAI-H5N1 outbreak occurrence: Case study from the Menoufia, Egypt. PLoS One. 2020 Oct 29;15(10):e0240442
Long endemicity of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 subtype in Egypt poses a lot of threats to public health. Contrary to what is previously known, outbreaks have been circulated continuously in the poultry sectors all year round without seasonality. These changes call the need for epidemiological studies to prove or deny the influence of climate variability on outbreak occurrence, which is the aim of this study. This work proposes a modern approach to examine the degree to which the HPAI-H5N1disease event is being influenced by climate variability as a potential risk factor using generalized estimating equations (GEEs). GEE model revealed that the effect of climate variability differs according to the timing of the outbreak occurrence. Temperature and relative humidity could have both positive and negative effects on disease events. During the cold seasons especially in the first quarter, higher minimum temperatures, consistently show higher risks of disease occurrence, because this condition stimulates viral activity, while lower minimum temperatures support virus survival in the other quarters of the year with the highest negative effect in the third quarter. On the other hand, relative humidity negatively affects the outbreak in the first quarter of the year as the humid weather does not support viral circulation, while the highest positive effect was found in the second quarter during which low humidity favors the disease event.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Influenza disease burden investigation and cost-effectiveness analysis based on system dynamics model 4 hours ago
- Descriptive analysis of dairy cow imports from the United States into Ontario, Canada between 2009 and 2019: implications for the risk of H5N1 introduction 4 hours ago
- Pre-existing cross-subtype serological responses against H5Nx in health care workers 5 hours ago
- Nomenclature Updates to the Hemagglutinin Gene Clade Designations Resulting From the Continued Evolution of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza A(H5) Virus Clades 2.3.2.1c and 2.3.4.4 18 hours ago
- Mathematical modeling of in vitro replication dynamics for multiple highly pathogenic avian influenza clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in chicken and duck cells 18 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


