Oviedo de la Fuente M, etc.,al. Predicting seasonal influenza transmission using functional regression models with temporal dependence. PLoS One. 2018 Apr 25;13(4):e0194250
This paper proposes a novel approach that uses meteorological information to predict the incidence of influenza in Galicia (Spain). It extends the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) methods in the multivariate framework to functional regression models with dependent errors. These kinds of models are useful when the recent history of the incidence of influenza are readily unavailable (for instance, by delays on the communication with health informants) and the prediction must be constructed by correcting the temporal dependence of the residuals and using more accessible variables. A simulation study shows that the GLS estimators render better estimations of the parameters associated with the regression model than they do with the classical models. They obtain extremely good results from the predictive point of view and are competitive with the classical time series approach for the incidence of influenza. An iterative version of the GLS estimator (called iGLS) was also proposed that can help to model complicated dependence structures. For constructing the model, the distance correlation measure [Formula: see text] was employed to select relevant information to predict influenza rate mixing multivariate and functional variables. These kinds of models are extremely useful to health managers in allocating resources in advance to manage influenza epidemics.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- T cell help is a limiting factor for rare anti-influenza memory B cells to reenter germinal centers and generate potent broadly neutralizing antibodies 2 days ago
- Wild birds drive the introduction, maintenance, and spread of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses in Spain, 2021-2022 2 days ago
- [preprint]FluNexus: a versatile web platform for antigenic prediction and visualization of influenza A viruses 2 days ago
- Salpingitis and multiorgan lesions caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus in a cat associated with consumption of recalled raw milk in California 2 days ago
- Detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus 2.3.4.4b in alpacas 2 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


