Anne Ewing, etc.,al. Contact, travel, and transmission: The impact of winter holidays on influenza dynamics in the United States. J Infect Dis. (2016)
Background: The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns, and we aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial flu transmission.
Methods: We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model.
Results: Winter holidays reduced flu transmission and delayed the trajectory of flu season epidemics. The holiday period is marked by a shift in relative risk of disease from children towards adults. Model results indicated that holidays delay epidemic peaks and synchronize incidence across locations, and contact reductions from school closures rather than age-specific mixing and travel produce these observed holiday flu dynamics.
Conclusions: Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk towards adults due to changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Structures of H5N1 influenza polymerase with ANP32B reveal mechanisms of genome replication and host adaptation 1 days ago
- Risk assessment of a highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus from mink 1 days ago
- Detection of clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus in New York City 1 days ago
- Sequence-based epitope mapping of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5 clade 2.3.4.4b in Latin America 2 days ago
- Guanylate-binding protein 1 inhibits inflammatory factors produced by H5N1 virus through Its GTPase activity 2 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]