Deyle ER. et al.. Global environmental drivers of influenza. PNAS. 2016 Nov 15
In temperate countries, influenza outbreaks are well correlated to seasonal changes in temperature and absolute humidity. However, tropical countries have much weaker annual climate cycles, and outbreaks show less seasonality and are more difficult to explain with environmental correlations. Here, we use convergent cross mapping, a robust test for causality that does not require correlation, to test alternative hypotheses about the global environmental drivers of influenza outbreaks from country-level epidemic time series. By moving beyond correlation, we show that despite the apparent differences in outbreak patterns between temperate and tropical countries, absolute humidity and, to a lesser extent, temperature drive influenza outbreaks globally. We also find a hypothesized U-shaped relationship between absolute humidity and influenza that is predicted by theory and experiment, but hitherto has not been documented at the population level. The balance between positive and negative effects of absolute humidity appears to be mediated by temperature, and the analysis reveals a key threshold around 75 °F. The results indicate a unified explanation for environmental drivers of influenza that applies globally
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Structures of H5N1 influenza polymerase with ANP32B reveal mechanisms of genome replication and host adaptation 20 hours ago
- Risk assessment of a highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus from mink 20 hours ago
- Detection of clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus in New York City 20 hours ago
- Sequence-based epitope mapping of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5 clade 2.3.4.4b in Latin America 2 days ago
- Guanylate-binding protein 1 inhibits inflammatory factors produced by H5N1 virus through Its GTPase activity 2 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]