H5N1 influenza pandemic: contingency plans

The current epidemic of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza, with a mortality of 58%, appears relentless in Asia, particularly in Vietnam and Thailand.1 Although inefficient, there is some evidence of human-to-human transmission for the H5N1 virus.2 A possible catastrophic pandemic could, therefore, emerge should re-assortment of viral antigens occur resulting in a highly infectious strain of H5N1. Influenza pandemics in 1917โ€“18, 1957โ€“58, and 1968โ€“69 have already caused approximately 15, 4, and 0ยท75 million deaths worldwide, respectively.
PIIS0140673605670808.pdf