Estimating epidemiological parameters of highly pathogenic avian influenza in common terns using exact Bayesian inference

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a contagious viral disease that has led to the culling of huge amounts of poultry as well as the mortality of countless wild birds. The recent panzootic that began in 2021 has been particularly notable for its devastating effect on seabird populations around the globe.
Whilst transmission of HPAI within poultry has been relatively well studied, the recency of the current panzootic, combined with data collection challenges, means that much less is known about key epidemiological parameters, such as reproduction numbers, R0, of HPAI in wild populations.